Text message | The War in Gaza

The current level of military violence is tolerable for the leadership of Hamas and Israel.

All three Israel-Gaza wars (2009, 2012, 2014) ended with a political resolution, both sides agreeing to stop the attacks after international mediation and not through military defeat and that's exactly how this one will also end.

War is a policy tool for leaders to achieve some strategic goals. But neither Israel nor Hamas have any strategic goals for Gaza, so once every few years they fight a war and get back to the status quo. The current war isn't any different.

Hamas demands that Israel end its air and sea blockade of Gaza. Israel refuses, claiming that would enable Iran to supply Hamas with more sophisticated weapons which, in itself, is true but it also brings economic suffering to Gazans.

The current level of military violence is tolerable for the leadership of Hamas and Israel despite the civilian suffering on both sides. The war will continue until that tolerance point is breached for either side and then, a cease-fire would be reached quickly —Egypt is standing by to formalize it.

In the end, there may be some tactical gain for either or both parties but the overall dynamics will remain the same.